kenlaidlaw

Unless we accept it and indeed embrace it.

In Scotland, we are stuck in a never ending debate about if we should or will ever hold a referendum. It is as usual, filled with emotion and non sensical arguments about the will of the Scottish people being denied. While there is a very weak argument for a majority perhaps being in favour of independence, there isn’t a poll showing a preference for a referendum in the next two years at least on a consistent basis. Even when polls show 50+ in support of indy, the underlying result on when, on those same polls is not within the next two years.

Meanwhile, we have a Scottish government who view everything through the lens of independence and an opposition who talk about the government viewing everything through the lens of independence. Couple that with a large group of voters on both sides voting on which party will resolve this issue in one direction or the other regardless of any actual performance by those parties. All while Scotland effectively burns. Almost every aspect of life in Scotland feels worse now than before devolution and in my opinion down to a single minded focus for more than three quarters of its existence on independence.

Table showing results from Savanta Comres polling for preference on when to hold a referendum.

As can be seen by the polling and I believe this is at it’s peak, there is not a majority of people in Scotland wanting a referendum in the next 2 years. The settled will of the Scottish people is not for a referendum now or in the next 2 years. So why are we so focused on it as everything else goes to hell in a handcart, while in the middle of a pandemic, at the start of a major period of financial turmoil? While there are majorities at times for holding a referendum in the next 5+ years, if these hold true and aren’t just wistful romantic notions, they will move over time to a majority wanting a referendum in the next 2 years.

The SNP can’t honestly want a referendum now, at best, they could hope for a win by the narrowest of margins and that would be an utter disaster for Scotland (we’ve seen how well Brexit has went down). At worst, if they lose the next referendum they can kiss independence good bye for the foreseeable future of 20 years plus.

So what’s it all about then? It can only be about one thing and one thing only, keeping SNP in power and independence on the agenda. The talk of referendums is the vehicle to which they achieve that, not competence in government, not policies we care about and that are actually implemented. It is all about the carrot of a referendum all the while everything they touch turns sour. The opposition are no better, the Conservatives have announced some reasonable policies that after being announced are never discussed again, they just revert back to independence. Labour may be about to start a fight back, but it will be a long slow road while the focus isn’t abut making lives better but about independence. We have a green party that doesn’t seem to know what it was created to stand for anymore and that other party that have now become completely irrelevant, which is a shame as I voted for them for most of my life.

So here’s a crazy idea!

Lets embrace the debate, for too long its been polarised in Scottish politics wasting parliamentary time on continuous discussion of something it has no remit over. Bill’s on a topic it can enact, manifesto pledges not within its power to deliver. It has also been a bitter debate with misinformation thrown about with wild abandon, misinformation that is tacitly acknowledged by those in power by their lack of dismissal of it.

So lets change all that, lets take this debate away from Scottish main stream politics so that our parliament can flourish and work on improving the lives of Scottish people. My proposal is we set up two campaign groups, one for each side, they get the same funding in order to pursue their goals of promoting one side or the other and do not have MSP’s or MP’s as part of their make up.

Their remit would be to inform the Scottish public in an honest debate around independence, any literature produced would need vetted by an independent body for honesty and integrity in its message. They would run quarterly polls, that ask the same questions each time so trends in preference can be tracked and the results of those polls would be a true reflection of “the will of the Scottish people” and if one day that shows we should have a referendum in the next two years then who are we to say nae?

The details can be dealt with later but a few points for me would be

• if 3 quarterly polls (a 6 month period) show a majority wanting a referendum then one should be held – by a majority I would propose 55%+ as the target to remove statistical anomalies.
• The UK government should agree to this process and be prepared to give approval for a referendum under those circumstances.
• The aims of both these groups should be to stop misleading the Scottish public and raise the tone of the debate to above the current gutter level.
• There are many details that would need sorted out, but none of them are insurmountable

I know many on the unionist side will not accept this and believe we should just say no. To them I would say, this debate isn’t going away, if the SNP lose a majority at the next election, it still won’t go away. All the time this debate sits at Holyrood, Scottish lives will fall behind the rest of the UK as a government focuses on something not within its power to give.

I know many on the independence side will not accept this, they want a referendum now despite what the Scottish people actually want. To them I would say, if you hold one now you will lose and if you lose you will never see independence in your lifetime. If you win you will inherit a broken and bleeding country with almost half of the population very unhappy. This way means you help the country you love with a government focused on governing it and a legitimate path to your dreams.